Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 256 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 12/2116Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 12/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 12/2257Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 138 pfu at 12/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2410 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Sep, 15
Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 Sep). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (14 Sep), are expected to cross
threshold on day two (15 Sep) and are likely to cross threshold on day
three (16 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 95% | 80% | 60% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Sep 075 Previsto 14 Sep-16 Sep 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 13 Sep 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 016/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 021/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 021/028-020/026-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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