Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 febrero 2018
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2018 Feb 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 43 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Feb 2018IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0135Z from Region 2699 (S07W29). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/1756Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1729Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (14 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (13 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Feb 079 Previsto 13 Feb-15 Feb 078/078/078 Media de 90 Días 12 Feb 072
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-007/008-020/028
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 35% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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