Viendo archivo del martes, 11 septiembre 2018
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2018 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Sep 2018IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (12 Sep, 13
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (14 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 11/1825Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 10/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 10/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 366 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Sep 069 Previsto 12 Sep-14 Sep 070/070/069 Media de 90 Días 11 Sep 070
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 015/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 028/043 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 012/016-011/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 55% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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