Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 febrero 2019
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2019 Feb 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 47 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Feb 2019IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 15/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 904 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Feb 071 Previsto 17 Feb-19 Feb 071/071/071 Media de 90 Días 16 Feb 071
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 40% |
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