Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 septiembre 2019
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2019 Sep 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 271 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Sep 2019IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 713 km/s at 27/2328Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 27/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 28/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16380 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Sep a 01 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Sep 067 Previsto 29 Sep-01 Oct 067/067/067 Media de 90 Días 28 Sep 067
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 015/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 023/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 015/020-010/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Sep a 01 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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