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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2020 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 16 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2020IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 16/0949Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 072 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 072/071/070 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 070
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 007/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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