Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 febrero 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 44 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 13/0721Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 13/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
13/0216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 071 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 071/071/071 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-007/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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