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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Apr 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 113 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0252Z from Region 2817 (N18, L=336). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 23/0246Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 19293 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Apr, 26 Apr)
and quiet to major storm levels on day two (25 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Apr 077 Previsto 24 Apr-26 Apr 077/077/077 Media de 90 Días 23 Apr 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 011/012-019/025-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 75% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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