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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 15/2114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1032Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (18 May) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 May 073 Previsto 17 May-19 May 073/077/077 Media de 90 Días 16 May 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 May 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 May 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/012-013/018-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 50% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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