Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 mayo 2021

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 May 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 149 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 May 2021

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 28/2313Z from Region 2824 (N19W68). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (31 May) and expected to be very low on day three (01 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 29/1904Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0409Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1001Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15 pfu at 29/0320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May), quiet levels on day two (31 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 May a 01 Jun
Clase M15%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 May 076
  Previsto   30 May-01 Jun 074/072/072
  Media de 90 Días        29 May 076

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 May  003/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 May  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  008/008-006/005-015/018

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 May a 01 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%30%
Tormenta Menor05%01%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%20%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%10%40%

All times in UTC

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