Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 septiembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Sep 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0519Z from Region 2868 (S19W49). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 11/0315Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 11/0438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
10/2244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Sep 092 Previsto 12 Sep-14 Sep 092/090/086 Media de 90 Días 11 Sep 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 009/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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