Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 agosto 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 15/2008Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/0634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/0634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 075 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 074/073/073 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 079
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 008/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.2 |
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