Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 octubre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 303 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0315Z from Region 2891 (N16E29). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 378 km/s at 30/1951Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
30/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
30/2053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20 pfu at 29/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02
Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Oct a 02 Nov
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Oct 107 Previsto 31 Oct-02 Nov 106/106/104 Media de 90 Días 30 Oct 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 028/044-011/012-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Oct a 02 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 85% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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