Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 noviembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Nov 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 307 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Nov 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (04 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 773 km/s at 03/2059Z. Total IMF reached 24
nT at 03/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
03/2033Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14 pfu at 03/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov), unsettled
to active levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Nov a 06 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Nov 089 Previsto 04 Nov-06 Nov 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 03 Nov 086
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 024/035-017/022-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Nov a 06 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 55% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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