Viendo archivo del miércoles, 22 diciembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Dec 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Dec 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0706Z from Region 2908 (S20W39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 22/1215Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 22/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/0230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1189 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Dec 140 Previsto 23 Dec-25 Dec 140/140/138 Media de 90 Días 22 Dec 090
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 012/016-016/020-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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| Último evento clase M | 16/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 16/02/2026 | Kp6 (G2) |
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