Viendo archivo del miércoles, 29 diciembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Dec 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 363 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Dec 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/0428Z from Region 2916 (S17W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 28/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Dec 111 Previsto 30 Dec-01 Jan 110/108/105 Media de 90 Días 29 Dec 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 008/010-007/008-005/006
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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