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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 23 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jan 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (24 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 23/0218Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6126 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jan a 26 Jan
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Jan 094
  Previsto   24 Jan-26 Jan 090/090/088
  Media de 90 Días        23 Jan 097

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jan  007/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  011/012-007/008-010/012

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jan a 26 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%30%
Tormenta Menor15%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%30%40%

All times in UTC

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