Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 marzo 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2022 Mar 03 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Mar 2022	107	002
04 Mar 2022	110	012
05 Mar 2022	100	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M2 event detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 2958 (Catania group 46) at 2 Mar 17:39 UT. Four C-class flares were also detected from an yet unnamed AR at S21E87. The remaining three NOAA AR that appear on the disk did not produce flaring activity above the B-class. More C-class events are expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 2958 and the AR at S21E87 that currently turns to Earth's view. There is also a good chance of an isolated M-class flare from one of those two AR.

Three front-sided Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images. The CME of 2 Mar 11:48 and 18:24 UT have a small chance to become geo-effective and if so they are estimated to arrive on Earth on Mar 6. The CME of 2 Mar 15:37 is most likely not geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) have now returned to a typical slow wind regime. The SW speed has gradually dropped from 480 to 340 km/h during the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Btot) varied between 2 and 4 nT, while its Bz component varied between -3 and 4 nT over the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was constantly positive (directed away from the Sun). A fairly weak High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours and the SW conditions are expected to reflect its arrival.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp index 0-1 and K-BEL index 1-2). The expected arrival of a weak HSS might increase the conditions to a moderate level.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	078
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

< < Ir a la visión general diaria