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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Apr 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 111 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Apr 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
21/0159Z from Region 2993 (N22E08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23
Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 21/1859Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 21/1130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/1139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1365 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to active levels on day
two (23 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Apr a 24 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Apr 164 Previsto 22 Apr-24 Apr 160/160/160 Media de 90 Días 21 Apr 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Apr 009/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Apr 010/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 006/005-010/012-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Apr a 24 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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