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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2022 May 17 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 May 2022	161	006
18 May 2022	163	004
19 May 2022	161	003

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M2 event detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3017 (Catania group 15) at 16 Mar 13:27 UT. Numerous C-class flares were also detected in the past 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3014 (Catania group 14). One or more isolated M-class flares and numerous C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours, most likely from NOAA AR 3011, 3014, or 3017.

Numerous Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were detected by LASCO-C2/SOHO during the last 24 hours. However, none of them appears to be geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) are still typical of a fast SW regime. The SW speed varied between 460 and 600 km/s, during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field varied between 3 and 11 nT, while its Bz component was measured between -8 and 11 nT during in the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to very gradually return to a slow wind regime.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally moderate (NOAA Kp index 1-3) and locally quiet (K Dourbes index 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be moderate to quiet for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 146, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 16 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	189
10cm solar flux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	145 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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