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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 May 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 May 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/1824Z from Region 3016 (S18W47). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (26 May) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 24/2118Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 636 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 May a 28 May
Clase M30%20%15%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 May 137
  Previsto   26 May-28 May 136/132/130
  Media de 90 Días        25 May 127

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 May  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  010/012-011/014-007/010

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 May a 28 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%40%30%

All times in UTC

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