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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 164 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jun 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 13/0407Z from Region 3032 (N21E33). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 13/0720Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 13/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 13/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun), active to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jun a 16 Jun
Clase M35%30%30%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Jun 132
  Previsto   14 Jun-16 Jun 132/132/132
  Media de 90 Días        13 Jun 126

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jun  012/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  011/014
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  009/012-027/040-014/018

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jun a 16 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%35%
Tormenta Menor10%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor30%25%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%65%50%

All times in UTC

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