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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 190 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jul 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1348Z from Region 3047 (S20W87). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 08/2110Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1251Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 09/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jul a 12 Jul
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Jul 137
  Previsto   10 Jul-12 Jul 138/140/135
  Media de 90 Días        09 Jul 126

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jul  014/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  004/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  006/008-013/008-013/015

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jul a 12 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%35%35%
Tormenta Menor01%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor20%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%50%55%

All times in UTC

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