Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 septiembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1019Z from Region 3098 (N18W65). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep,
17 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 14/1945Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
14/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/1932Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15800 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Sep).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 144 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-012/015-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 30% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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