Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 octubre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/1432Z from Region 3112 (N23W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct,
17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 14/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 115 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 115/110/112 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 016/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 016/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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