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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Nov 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 305 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Nov 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov,
03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 31/2227Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1783 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Nov 128 Previsto 02 Nov-04 Nov 130/135/135 Media de 90 Días 01 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 108/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 011/010-008/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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