Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 diciembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Dec 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 364 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Dec 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/1938Z from Region 3176 (N20E10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 30/2012Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 30/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 30/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3678 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec,
01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Dec a 02 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Dec 162 Previsto 31 Dec-02 Jan 162/160/160 Media de 90 Días 30 Dec 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Dec 022/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 013/017-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Dec a 02 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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| Último evento clase M | 02/02/2026 | M6.8 |
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