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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 50 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
19/0817Z from Region 3226 (N10W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 19/1454Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Feb) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (21 Feb, 22
Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Feb 169 Previsto 20 Feb-22 Feb 160/150/140 Media de 90 Días 19 Feb 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 020/025-014/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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