Viendo archivo del martes, 28 febrero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 59 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
28/1750Z from Region 3234 (N25W36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 27/2141Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 28/0044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 735 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (03
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Mar a 03 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Feb 161 Previsto 01 Mar-03 Mar 160/160/156 Media de 90 Días 28 Feb 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Feb 060/109 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Feb 018/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 013/016-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Mar a 03 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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