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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 85 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Mar 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1708Z from Region 3256 (S23W45). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 26/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 746 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Mar a 29 Mar
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Mar 159
  Previsto   27 Mar-29 Mar 160/155/145
  Media de 90 Días        26 Mar 172

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Mar  012/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  011/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Mar a 29 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%20%15%
Tormenta Menor20%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%15%20%
Tormenta Menor30%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%25%20%

All times in UTC

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