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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 126 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 May 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 05/2227Z from Region 3288. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 06/1037Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/0401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (07 May), active to severe storm levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 May a 09 May
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 May 152
  Previsto   07 May-09 May 155/155/160
  Media de 90 Días        06 May 160

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 May  004/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 May  022/034
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  024/032-036/055-019/024

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 May a 09 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%40%
Tormenta Menor40%35%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%40%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%05%15%
Tormenta Menor20%20%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%65%45%

All times in UTC

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