Viendo archivo del martes, 16 mayo 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
16/1643Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May,
19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 15/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0637Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 May, 19 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 May 134 Previsto 17 May-19 May 140/145/140 Media de 90 Días 16 May 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 May 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 May 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
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