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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
20/2306Z from Region 3311 (N18E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23
May, 24 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 20/2216Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 21/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 21/1935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1084 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (22 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (23 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (24 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 May 163 Previsto 22 May-24 May 160/155/150 Media de 90 Días 21 May 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 May 026/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 May 013/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 016/022-014/018-020/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 10/01/2026 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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