Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 septiembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Sep 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Sep 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/1041Z from Region 3435 (N09E56). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 18/1617Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 18/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 18/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 734 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (19 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Sep 155 Previsto 19 Sep-21 Sep 154/154/152 Media de 90 Días 18 Sep 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 014/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 023/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 022/035-014/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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