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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Oct 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 282 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/1911Z from Region 3451 (N17W60). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 09/1632Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct,
11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Oct 166 Previsto 10 Oct-12 Oct 156/156/150 Media de 90 Días 09 Oct 160
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct NA/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-008/010-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
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