Viendo archivo del jueves, 9 noviembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Nov 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 313 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Nov 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/1349Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2555 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (12 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Nov 139 Previsto 10 Nov-12 Nov 140/140/145 Media de 90 Días 09 Nov 148
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 015/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 009/010-019/030-019/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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