Viendo archivo del martes, 5 diciembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Dec 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 339 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Dec 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0644Z from Region 3513 (N19E67). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 05/1616Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Dec a 08 Dec
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Dec 142 Previsto 06 Dec-08 Dec 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 05 Dec 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Dec 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Dec 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Dec a 08 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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