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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jan 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 3 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jan 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/1018Z from Region 3536 (N06E37). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 03/1952Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 03/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1825Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11 pfu at 03/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jan 140 Previsto 04 Jan-06 Jan 145/145/150 Media de 90 Días 03 Jan 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| marzo 2026 | 75 -37.6 |
| Last 30 days | 59.2 -65.5 |