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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jan 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 17 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jan 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0724Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan,
20 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 17/1740Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Jan, 19 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (20 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jan a 20 Jan
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jan 174 Previsto 18 Jan-20 Jan 165/160/160 Media de 90 Días 17 Jan 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jan a 20 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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