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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jan 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 23 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jan 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
23/0331Z from Region 3559 (N27W03). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 22/2137Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 22/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Jan, 26
Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jan a 26 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jan 180 Previsto 24 Jan-26 Jan 180/180/180 Media de 90 Días 23 Jan 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jan 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jan 014/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 014/018-016/020-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jan a 26 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 02/02/2026 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 03/02/2026 | M1.7 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 114 -10 |
| Last 30 days | 118.1 +6.2 |