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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Feb 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 36 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Feb 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
04/2237Z from Region 3576 (S16E72). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (08 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 05/1757Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 05/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
05/1624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (08 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Feb 173 Previsto 06 Feb-08 Feb 175/175/165 Media de 90 Días 05 Feb 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
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