Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 febrero 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Feb 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 45 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Feb 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0310Z from Region 3582 (N06W40). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Feb,
16 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (17 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 14/0853Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/0607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0145Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 47 pfu at 14/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev are
expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Feb) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (16 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 35% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 75% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Feb 184 Previsto 15 Feb-17 Feb 185/182/175 Media de 90 Días 14 Feb 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
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