Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 febrero 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Feb 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 59 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Feb 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
28/0909Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached an estimated peak of 470 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/0956Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Feb,
01 Mar, 02 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Feb a 02 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Feb 180 Previsto 29 Feb-02 Mar 180/175/170 Media de 90 Días 28 Feb 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Feb 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 007/008-007/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Feb a 02 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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