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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
10/0654Z from Region 3664 (S17W48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 10/1917Z. Total IMF
reached 52 nT at 10/1745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-46 nT at 10/1740Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 206 pfu at 10/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (11 May), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (12 May) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (13 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(11 May), are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 May) and are
likely to cross threshold on day three (13 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Clase X | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Protón | 99% | 75% | 60% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 223 Previsto 11 May-13 May 225/220/220 Media de 90 Días 10 May 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 007/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 085/097 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 064/090-020/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 95% | 79% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
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