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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0706Z from Region 3679 (S08W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 May,
26 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (27 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 24/0940Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/2348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 May) and quiet levels on day three (27 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (25 May, 26 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 May a 27 May
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 May 163 Previsto 25 May-27 May 160/150/150 Media de 90 Días 24 May 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 May 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 May 012/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 012/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 May a 27 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.3 -4.8 |
| Last 30 days | 108.2 +0.2 |