Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 julio 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
13/1242Z from Region 3738 (S09W40). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 12/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
13/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (16
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jul 238 Previsto 14 Jul-16 Jul 235/235/235 Media de 90 Días 13 Jul 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 28/03/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 25/03/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 85.2 +7 |
| Last 30 days | 85.2 +8.6 |
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