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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
01/0709Z from Region 3768 (S16W85). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03
Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 01/0026Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 01/0336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 01/0038Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet to major
storm levels on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Aug) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Aug 234 Previsto 02 Aug-04 Aug 235/230/220 Media de 90 Días 01 Aug 192
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 013/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 024/031 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/010-018/030-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 70% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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