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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 216 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
03/1839Z from Region 3775 (N17E18). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05
Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 02/2122Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Aug 245 Previsto 04 Aug-06 Aug 245/240/230 Media de 90 Días 03 Aug 194
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 018/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 018/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.3 -4.7 |
| Last 30 days | 120.3 +3.4 |