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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2024 Sep 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Sep 2024	222	011
10 Sep 2024	218	009
11 Sep 2024	215	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high with five M1 flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3806 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 68) produced four of these flares, among them the brightest, an M1.8 at 9 Sep 05:45 UTC. NOAA AR 3811 produced the first M-class flare of the past 24 hours, an M1.5 at 8 Sep 15:30 UTC. More M-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3806, 3811, and 3814. There is also a small chance of an X-class flare.

Eyección de masa coronal

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched at 9 Sep 03:36 UTC. It is associated with NOAA active region 3806 which is located at the west solar limb. Due to its location, it is expected to only deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's environment at the second half of 11 Sep. A halo CME also seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and detected by CACTus as launched at 9 Sep 07:36 UTC is a back-sided event and not expected to affect the Earth's environment.

Viento solar

Solar Wind (SW) conditions resemble the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 320 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 5 and 12 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -9 and 12 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed predominately towards the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to follow the same pattern for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3- and K BEL 2 to 3). They are expected to remain at the same levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has reached the 10 fpu threshold level since 9 Sep 07:45 UTC. This is most likely a weak and short-lived event and the proton 10 MeV levels are expected to drop below the threshold in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	228
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	173 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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