Viendo archivo del martes, 24 septiembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 268 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
24/1146Z from Region 3828 (S11W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 24/0241Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27
Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Sep a 27 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Sep 172 Previsto 25 Sep-27 Sep 172/170/168 Media de 90 Días 24 Sep 214
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/018-012/012-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Sep a 27 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 19/12/2025 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 120.8 +29 |
| Last 30 days | 108.7 +19.4 |